Several months ago, reports indicated that Samsung had received mass production approval for its 1cm DRAM, signifying the completion of the next-generation DRAM technology development. This follows the previous two-year iteration cycle of DRAM technology upgrades, with production capacity expected to reach 60,000 wafers per month by the end of this year. Rumors suggest Samsung achieved a 50% to 70% yield rate in 1cm DRAM production testing, a significant improvement from less than 30% at the end of last year. A key reason for Samsung's emphasis on 1cm DRAM is its intention to use it in the next-generation HBM4.
According to TrendForce, to gain a competitive edge in HBM4, Samsung is accelerating its 1cm DRAM production capacity, planning to increase it to 140,000 wafers per month by the second quarter of 2026 and further to 200,000 wafers per month by the fourth quarter. These figures refer to the equipment setup phase, with the goal of achieving mass production readiness at each milestone.
To put a sense of scale, 200,000 wafers per month might seem small. Currently, Samsung's total DRAM production capacity is approximately 650,000 to 700,000 wafers per month. This means that the latest 1cm DRAM production has reached approximately 30% of total capacity in a short period, exceeding the rate of increase that Samsung added during the 2022 semiconductor boom by 130,000 wafers. To achieve this, Samsung is transitioning existing DRAM production lines while simultaneously investing in new capacity at its Pyeongtaek P4 plant. This move reflects Samsung's confidence in 1cm DRAM and strong market demand, which has recently reached a point of supply shortage driven by artificial intelligence (AI).
Rival SK Hynix has similar plans, intending to begin mass production of 1cm DRAM by the end of 2025, achieve full production in 2026, and by the end of 2026, have more than half of its domestic general-purpose DRAM production in South Korea come from 1cm DRAM, establishing a complete 1cm DRAM product lineup including LPDDR and GDDR products.
