Elon Musk recently made a major prediction on the X platform (formerly Twitter), claiming that the Grok 5 large-scale language model, soon to be released by his company xAI, has a 10% chance of achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), and that this probability is still rising. This statement immediately garnered widespread attention in the tech community, as no company globally has yet achieved AGI. Musk's prediction was groundbreaking in that it marked the first time a tech leader had given a specific numerical estimate of the probability of achieving AGI.
Just last month, when Musk first suggested that xAI could achieve AGI through Grok 5, this idea sparked heated discussion. Last week, he further clarified, stating, "Grok 5 will be AGI, or at least indistinguishable from it." Although the model has not yet been officially released, Musk's continued statements have significantly heightened expectations. Notably, he emphasized that the probability of achievement is "still rising," suggesting that xAI may have made significant technological progress.
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) refers to AI systems that can achieve or even surpass human-level performance in cognitive tasks such as thinking and reasoning. A report from the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) suggests that the realization of AGI could pave the way for "artificial superintelligence" (ASI), potentially surpassing the combined intelligence of all humans. Once AGI becomes a reality, it will revolutionize numerous fields, from robotics to manufacturing. Musk's prediction not only sets a new milestone in AI development but also reignites discussions about the ethics of technology.
