Elon Musk recently made a high-profile prediction on the social media platform X that his xAI chatbot, Grok 5, has a 10% probability of achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), and claims the number is still rising. xAI employee Aditya Gupta quickly echoed this prediction, sparking heated discussion in the industry. However, OpenAI researcher Gabriel Peterson sarcastically responded, calling it "Musk's fourth 10% probability announcement," prompting Musk to angrily call it "pathetic," revealing a long-standing feud between the two companies.
This isn't the first time Musk has predicted the imminence of AGI. According to Futurism, in 2024 he asserted that AGI would be achieved "within two years," and last month he hinted that Grok 5 "might" achieve this goal. The controversy stems from a deep disagreement over the definition of AGI: Musk believes AGI must "surpass human intelligence" or "perform all computer tasks that humans can perform," while OpenAI defines it as "a system that surpasses humans in most economically valuable tasks." Despite OpenAI CEO Altman calling the term "impractical," the two companies continue to compete over this "holy grail."
Musk and OpenAI have been locked in a years-long battle, battling over technological advancements and business strategies. After parting ways in 2018 due to disagreements over the company's development direction, the two sides have engaged in numerous legal battles. This clash once again highlights the AI industry's fierce competition for the vision of AGI. Whether Musk's optimistic predictions can be fulfilled remains to be seen.
